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SABookie3000
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Name: Rizzy
Location: San Antonio, Texas, United States
Birthday: 7/24/1985
Gender: Male
Interests: Read the blog...you'll figure it out soon.
Expertise: It's probably best not to get me started...
Occupation: Student/Intern
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AIM:  SABookie300
Member Since:
1/28/2004
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| I know it's a little late now for preview talk, but we're not even one
week into the season, right? Let's peek at the standing of my top teams:
San Antonio -- 3-0
Houston -- 3-0
Dallas -- 2-1
Phoenix -- 2-1
But honestly, who couldn't have predicted that?
4.
HOUSTON ROCKETS – Waitin’. (“They roll around and now things a-really
startuh getting hot / And the man says "I love you" and the woman says
"hold on a second, I gotta go to the bathroom" / So you wait, and you
wait, and you wait and you wait…[pause]…and you wait, and you wait, and
you waaaaiit”)
[http://downloads.southparkstuff.com/audio/chefsongs/chef113.mp3]
Since
the arrival of Tracy McGrady, it seems the Rockets have always been on
the brink of ascension. Tracy is Tracy, and Yao Ming has improved his
game by considerable margins from year to year. The question, as it
almost always is for the dual superstar teams, is the supporting cast.
Two years ago after busting out to the Mavericks in a classic 7-game
series, Stromile Swift was supposed to be the key third piece of their
team, but he completely washed out, and so did the Rockets – injuries
killed them, and they finished 34-48. Last year, those fluke injuries
from 05-06 weren’t supposed to return, plus they had picked up
defensive ace Shane Battier and the punishing Bonzi Wells. Well, the
injuries hit again while Battier under-performed at the offensive end
and Wells rarely saw the floor. Again, they lost in a close seven game
series in the first round.
This offseason, the Rockets did
nothing short of a complete overhaul. New general manager Daryl Morey
was very active, starting with a replacement at head coach. Rick
Adelman replaces Jeff Van Gundy. To say that these two coaches are
diametrically opposed wouldn’t do justice – this is like replacing God
with the Devil. Van Gundy’s team last year ranked third in defensive
efficiency while playing at a plodding pace that ranked 21st in the
league. Also, Van Gundy’s offense was almost completely dependent on
Yao and T-Mac scoring; if anyone else is contributing, it’s at the
three point line, as nearly 30% of their shots came from downtown. In
all, the Rockets were kind of a dull team to watch. Here’s what you can
expect from Adelman: the most fun offense I’ve ever watched. Adelman’s
Sacramento teams played really fast and really well, consistently
ranking in the top five in terms of efficiency and pace. They don’t
play like Nelson’s or D’Antoni’s teams that focus on transition threes.
Instead, Adelman’s offense is based on off-the-ball movement and high
post passing from his big players. McGrady figures to benefit most from
this style – with Van Gundy, he had to make almost all the plays that
weren’t post-ups to Yao. This year, he’ll be able to be more of a
finisher than a creator. With Yao’s size and his growing intelligence
of the game, I think he’ll be an apt passer.
After Morey decided
on Adelman, he did a wonderful job in getting players that will fit his
system. Bonzi, who never played last year, had his option picked up and
figures to thrive since his best years were in Sacramento under
Adelman. Morey pulled what might be the heist of the season when he
traded Euro-trash Vassilis Spanoulis to the Spurs for Euro-star Luis
Scola. He was the FIBA tournament MVP playing for Argentina, which
essentially plays Adelman-style ball. The Rockets really needed to help
at their four-spot, which was their weakest position along with point
guard. Morey certainly noticed – he signed former Rocket PGs Mike James
and Steve Francis, and then he drafted speedy point guard Aaron Brooks.
All of a sudden, the two-man team from last year now has almost too
much depth – Adelman is a known for playing a short rotation.
No
doubt, it’s going to take Adelman a long time to whittle down his list
of dependable players (the Rockets struggled with picking which 15
players would make the roster). The Rockets have a lot of new players
and a new system to learn. Further, McGrady historically coasts through
the first two months of the season. That’s why I expect the Rockets to
be unremarkable but steady through the first half of the season, with
their defense carrying them initially. But I see this team coming on
very strong by season’s end, with Yao crowned as the MVP of the league.
Unless injuries hit this team hard again, the Rockets’ wait will end –
they will have to be mentioned as one of the West’s elite, an exclusive
club whose membership has been limited to the Suns, Mavericks and Spurs
over the past three years.
However, let’s not get ahead of
ourselves. As McGrady noted himself in an interview earlier this year,
“They say this is our best team yet, but they’ve said that every year
that I’ve been here.” Sorry, but we’re going to say it again. Still,
I’m giving the Suns, Mavs and Spurs a better win total, and a better
shot at winning the Finals.
3. PHOENIX SUNS – Needing You II.
(“Don't ever leave me, Jesus. I couldn't stand to see you go. / My
heart would simply snap, my Lord, if you walked on out that door. / I
promise I'll be good to you, and keep you warm at night. / Jesus,
Jesus, Jesus, why don't we just... shut off the lights.”)
[http://downloads.southparkstuff.com/audio/cartmansongs/709_donteverleavemejesus.mp3]
When’s
the last time a team that has won 62, 61 and 54 games in the past three
seasons have so many trade rumors and disgruntled feelings amongst
their stars? Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion were staples in trade
talks over the summer, which even caused Marion himself to ask for a
trade. That would be shame, because there is no player who is a better
fit with Steve Nash than he. Of all three of those Suns teams (and this
one), they are the only ones to play a complete season with each other.
And that may be the one thing that has hampered Phoenix a bit – while
Dallas and San Antonio have had a core and cast that have been together
for a good amount of time, Phoenix has had a revolving door. In 04-05,
it was Amare Stoudemire, Quentin Richardson and Joe Johnson; in 05-06,
it was Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, Kurt Thomas and Raja Bell; last
year, it seemed some players succeeded at the expense of others.
This
year, six of their main seven rotation players return – Nash, Marion,
Amare, Bell, Barbosa and Diaw. They lost James Jones and literally gave
away Kurt Thomas with Grant Hill taking their place. Losing Kurt Thomas
will have a major negative impact on their defense. I know what you’re
thinking – what defense? Despite their per game numbers, the Suns have
been a better-than-average defensive team whenever Kurt Thomas played.
Since their offense is the best in the league, average defense should
suffice. Thomas missed some time due to injury, and the Suns performed
at a much lower level without him. Amare will now assume more minutes
at center, and this will kill him in the playoffs. While he may make
the occasional spectacular defensive play, Amare takes too many chances
and puts himself in foul trouble. After that, Marion nor Diaw have no
shot at defending 5s (much less bigger 4s). You think Brian Skinner is
suddenly going to be an impact player?
On offense, expect more
of the same. Grant Hill provides apt ballhandling whenever Steve Nash
goes to the pine, which allows Barbosa to play off the ball and gives
the Suns another playmaker besides Nash and Diaw. Coach Mike D’Antoni
swears that the Suns will attempt to play faster than ever, and I
believe him. Here’s the thing about this team – when they first
acquired Nash and D’Antoni unleashed his style, they were the loosest
team on the floor. Nash made everything so easy for everyone, they all
had the green light. They had no expectations, and surprised everyone
with 62 wins and career years for all.
Now? The pressure is
on. Nash, they say despite him turning in the best three years of his
career, only has a few years to be able to lead a team at this pace.
Players are clearly disgruntled. The care-free attitude has been
replaced with do-or-die game faces. Screams of joy after converted
alley-oops are now just mean glares while running to the other side of
the court.
I think this style of basketball can succeed. Right
now, I really don’t think the Suns have the team chemistry to fall back
on when every play is crucial in the playoffs. They don’t have nearly
enough talent around their main seven-man rotation. Look at the Spurs
and Mavs who regularly play 10 games in a game. The Rockets could
barely decide which 15 players to keep! Clearly, owner Robert Sarver’s
insistence of selling his first round picks to slash payroll has
hampered this team. Picks from three years ago could be the key eighth
or ninth guy to take the pressure – and minutes – of the Suns’ stars. I
think 82 games will wear this team down again when they have to face an
equally good Mavs or Spurs team. The difference? Freshness, depth and
chemistry.
2. DALLAS MAVERICKS – Mr. Hanky the Christmas Poo.
(“I'm Mr Hanky, the Christmas poo. / Seasons greetings to all of you. /
Let’s sing songs, and dance, and play. / Now, before I melt away.”)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sv5VEIH4zM0&mode=related&search=]
You
can expect pretty much the same thing from the Mavericks every year – a
very nice regular season followed by an absolute meltdown at some point
in the playoffs. Let’s review the last five years:
2002-2003:
62-20, T-1st in West. Winning by 10 going into the fourth quarter
against the Spurs in Game 6 of the conference finals (down 3-2), Steve
Kerr kills the Mavs with four three pointers, as the Spurs score 23
UNANSWERED points to eliminate the Mavs.
2003-2004: 52-30, 5th. Unremarkably lose to the Kings in the first round.
2004-2005:
58-24, 3rd. In the Western semis down 3-2, the Mavs lose a lead in Game
6 that goes to overtime, while Dirk Nowitzki screams at Jason Terry for
not giving him the ball.
2005-2006: 60-22, 2nd. Leading the Heat 2-0
in the Finals and up 13 points late in the fourth quarter of Game 3,
Dwyane Wade lights up the Mavs and leads the Heat to comeback win. The
Mavs lose the next three games to lose, 4-2.
2006-2007: 67-15, 1st.
The Mavs set a franchise record for victories, but are completely
overwhelmed by the Don Nelson-led Golden State Warriors, becoming the
first first-seed to lose a seven game series.
A lot has changed
since that 2003 season. Back then, they were coached by Nelson and led
by Steve Nash and produced some of the best offensive seasons in NBA
history (in terms of efficiency) at a break-neck pace with no regard to
defense at all. Today, Avery Johnson has successfully instilled a
defensive system with the guys to play it, and they plod along at a
slow pace and score with their superior offensive threats off of
isolations. No, they aren’t nearly as fun to watch as they once were,
but they have succeeded like no Mavs team before them over the last two
years (first ever Finals appearance and a franchise best 67-win season).
The
Mavs return much of the same team, but they have made several changes
in their starting lineup. Devin Harris will now be the Mavs’ lead point
guard. He lacks Jason Terry’s fearless shooting, but he can absolutely
blaze past most guards. However, he lacks court vision, which if
developed could really take the strain off of the Mavs’ lead scorers.
Harris, though, is a great on-ball defender who can check every point
guard from Baron Davis (size) to Tony Parker (speed). Key sixth man
Jerry Stackhouse also moves into starting five to alleviate the loss of
Terry’s scoring role there. Defensive ace Desagana Diop will also
assume full-time starting duty since the other half of their two-man
rotation, Erick Dampier, is out with an injury and will be slow to
recover. All-Stars Dirk and Josh Howard remain in the starting five, of
course. Essentially, the Mavs transformation to defense is now complete
– they are starting their best defensive lineup.
Terry should
easily slide into Stackhouse’s quick-punch scoring role off the bench.
Whenever teams decide to double down on Dirk, expect Terry to see
extended minutes. The Mavs signed veteran Eddie Jones who will knock
down threes, and he can still provide pretty good defense. Those eight
compose their main rotation, but Avery will be sure to give his younger
guys a look. Additionally, the Mavs just signed Juwan Howard.
This
Mavs team is truly capable of beating every team in the West…except for
the Warriors. Why? This team is much too dependent on individual
offense. With three really good scoring options on the floor at a time
for this team, most opponents simply can’t defend all of them,
especially so because Dirk is such an atypical offensive player with
respect to his skill set and size. All of the Warriors are essentially
the same size with good speed, and they were able to limit the Mavs’
individual advantages. The Mavs couldn’t adopt because they have no
playmakers – they ranked last in team assists last year. Avery brought
in Paul Westphal as an assistant coach; you may remember him from those
high-octane Suns teams in the 90s. Unless young point guard Jose Juan
Barea really comes along, the Mavs still won’t have a playmaking guard.
You think they still miss Nash a little bit?
That’s really my
only bone to pick with this team…in the regular season. When the
playoffs roll around, the Mavs somehow have to gain some composure, and
that falls on Dirk and Avery. The talent and system is there – the Mavs
simply have to stop melting away.
1. SAN ANTONIO SPURS – My
Robot Friend. (“I like to dip and daddle with my robot friend. / He's
smart as can be and emotion-free / And he's computin' his way to my
heart. / My robot friend.”)
[http://downloads.southparkstuff.com/audio/butterssongs/802_robotfriend.mp3]
Gregg
Popovich, the philosopher that he is, passes down many mantras that his
team lives by. One of his favorite is “Never too high, never too low.”
If
there’s one thing that separates the Spurs from the rest of the elite,
it’s composure. Check how the Pistons have blown up in the last two
seasons, with players earning ejections in playoff games. The
Mavericks, too, have fallen apart when things began to slip away from
them. Even the Suns, an alleged “chemistry” team, couldn’t recover
after Amare and Diaw were suspended (which is a case of lost composure
in itself).
Never too high, never too low. The Spurs kill teams
with systematic precision and never allow themselves to enjoy any
success until it’s the ultimate success. Although Popovich is the
overseer of it all, it’s Tim Duncan that sets the tone on and off the
floor. Aside from some whining, Duncan is absolutely stoic – Chinese
fans have nicknamed him “Stone Buddha.” In the States, we have embraced
him as “The Big Fundamental.” On offense, he is as patient as ever,
catching the ball and analyzing how to beat his man, reading where
double teams are coming from and making the correct play almost every
time. Last year, the Spurs were fifth in offensive efficiency, their
greatest mark ever in the Pop-Timmy era. Yes, Ginobili and Parker’s
ascension are obviously major factors, but I submit that it’s Duncan’s
growing wisdom of the game that has the Spurs nearly as potent on
offense as they are suffocating on defense. On the defensive side, Tim
again is the focal point of the Spurs’ system. (He’s also become the
“vocal” point of the system – if you listen to the players on the
floor, you’ll hear Duncan yelling out the action to his teammates;
usually, the possession ends in a missed shot, and Duncan will reach
for the rebound and say, “Mine!”) Perimeter defenders are instructed to
run their opponents into the baseline where they will have to meet
Duncan at the basket – lay-ups aren’t easy when he’s around. Unlike Ben
Wallace and Marcus Camby who make spectacular blocks from the weakside,
Duncan is disciplined enough to keep his feet (remember, players are
coming at him) and that allows him to get the best possible position
for a rebound. Just like his offensive game, Duncan’s greatness isn’t
flashy, but supremely effective. How he’s never won a DPOY award is
beyond me.
You may call Duncan’s game boring; I honestly love it.
Nearly
the entire championship team returns in their quest for their first
repeat championship – the Spurs have failed in three prior attempts to
do repeat. I’d say to expect the same from the Spurs, but that may be
misleading because last year’s Spurs team was a (welcome) deviation
from the “classic” Spurs squad. Ginobili and Parker each played their
best season as a Spur, so now a good portion of the offense runs
through each of them. In fact, expect Parker to have a higher “usage”
rate than Duncan this year (of course in the playoffs, Option A is
Duncan). Ginobili will resume his role as the Sixth Man as Popovich
looks to conserve him over the long season. For the first time ever in
his professional career, Ginobili is coming off of a complete summer
rest – usually, Ginobili plays for the Argentine national squad, but at
Pop’s urging, he chose to skip it. This being the case, we may be in
for Ginobili’s best regular season campaign yet. Around the San Antonio
Big Tres, the Spurs have a plethora of three-point bombers – Brent
Barry (45%), Bruce Bowen (38%) (by the way, I like to call them the BB
guns), Matt Bonner (38%), Michael Finley (36%), and Robert Horry (34%).
Ginobili himself is an awesome three-point threat (40%), as he’s
perfected a step-back three pointer. The Spurs like to fire away too –
nearly a quarter of their shots were long-balls last year, which
outranked all but five other teams, and they were the third best in
accuracy.
On defense, it’s same ‘ol, same ‘ol. As I mentioned
earlier, the Spurs try to funnel everything to the baseline where they
will be challenged by Duncan or one of the other Spurs’ big men. Just
as the Spurs’ offense focuses on the three point line, the Spurs’
defense does the same, as they are the best in the league at running
shooters off the arc. The Spurs led the league in fewest three point
attempts allowed, and even if an opponent did get a three off, it
wasn’t at a good percentage – the Spurs allowed a 33% opponent three
point field goal percentage, which was second in the league. Most
impressive about the Spur defense is how well they avoid fouls. Only
Phoenix had a lower fouling rate than the Spurs last year, and that’s
because they don’t want to stop the game. For a team to be so intent on
stopping another a team yet are disciplined enough not to foul is
amazing to me. In all, the Spurs ranked second in defensive efficiency
last year. And get this – Popovich maintained that the 2006-2007 Spurs
were the worst defensive team he’s ever coached. Actually, he’s not far
off the mark. The defenders on the wings are getting much older and
slower – three of their main wing rotation guys (Bowen, Barry and
Finley) are 34 or older. The Spurs did sign Ime Udoka, who is
essentially a lesser Bruce Bowen, but he’s 30 himself. So expect the
Spurs to slip on defense a bit, but even then, they’ll be one of the
top three teams on defense.
Coming into the season, it seems
pretty clear to me that the Spurs are the best team in the league.
Several teams have the potential to reach their level; Dallas is very
close already, and Phoenix, Houston and a few other teams will have to
prove that their talented individuals can come together as a team.
Early in last year’s season the Spurs took their lumps as they had to
integrate some new pieces, and as a result, they bowed out of the West
race for the number one seed (Dallas and Phoenix were rolling). This
year, the Spurs look primed to take charge early, and even though no
other team plays its starters less minutes than the Spurs, they have
enough depth to sustain a season-long run. More importantly, this group
knows how to win together in the playoffs, and see the Spurs repeating
as champions. | | |
| I have a list. I like making lists. Here's one:
Days I Look Forward to the Most:
5. Last day of the Fall semester
4. Thanksgiving
3. Last day of the Spring semester
2. NBA Tip-Off
1. My birthday.
I'm
a happy person today because it's my anticipated second favorite day of
the year. Like four of the last nine years, today is even better
because my team, the San Antonio Spurs, get to host the first game of
the season. They never fail to deliver either -- the Spurs are
undefeated (10-0) in their season opener under Coach Gregg Popovich.
Okay,
so I've got another list -- my rankings of Western Conference teams.
Actually, I've left four teams off the list, because I wanted to focus
more of my attention to the four title contenders this year (including
all teams...you'll note that my first preview contained all 15 East
teams, none of whom I think have better than a 5% chance of winning the
title). You should know who those teams are. Actually, the real reason
why I didn't list those teams was because I've been really busy with
school and the student lifestyle (read: drinking). So here are the
other 11 teams in the West. And I promise Part III will come soon.
(Note: previews were written at different times, so some articles will be more up to date than others.)
LOS
ANGELES CLIPPERS – Get Better, Kyle. (Everybody misses you / And though
we hate to cause a fuss / We'd like to say, "Get well soon!" / And
"Please don't die on us.")
[http://downloads.southparkstuff.com/audio/butterssongs/407_butterscard.mp3]
I
have a weak stomach, so I still haven’t allowed myself to see the nasty
Shawn Livingston knee injury from last year. Now that Elton Brand is
likely done for the year too, I probably won’t allow myself to watch
the Clippers this year either.
The Clippers will go forward
without their All-Star forward and without a viable point guard under
the age of 32. The Clippers did manage to grab Ruben Patterson and
Brevin Knight in free agency, but why? I’m not sure the Clippers
realize how dire their situation is right now – their go-to guy is
Corey Magettee, a nice offensive player, but one that head coach Mike
Dunleavy doesn’t like. The Clippers haven’t been shy about trying to
trade him away as well. After that, the Clippers have Sam Cassell, who
is 37, injury-prone and already eager to join the Denver Nuggets. Then
there’s Kaman, Tim Thomas, Patterson, Cuttino Mobley – all okay players
that can contribute, but also highly unmotivated (Patterson excluded
from the last comment). Given the team’s situation, I’d say that the
team won’t be motivated to work very hard, especially because no one is
working for a new contract, and they seemed to have tuned out Dunleavy.
Two
years ago, the Clippers really thought they turned the corner after
taking the Suns to seven games in the Western Conference Finals (which
is why they stupidly extended Cassell and Kaman, and signed Tim
Thomas). This year they will find themselves in familiar territory –
last place in the West.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES – Make It Right.
(“I'm gonna make, make it right. / I'm gonna take a little time and set
things right. / Make, make it right. / I'm payin' for my sins and it
sure feels great.”)
[http://downloads.southparkstuff.com/audio/cartmansongs/906_makeitrightsong.mp3]
GM
Kevin McHale and owner Glen Taylor finally did it – they traded Kevin
Garnett, albeit one or two years too late. Considering their options,
they didn’t do too badly, receiving future All-Star Al Jefferson,
intriguing youngster Gerald Green, two okay players, Theo Ratliff’s
expiring contract and two first round draft picks. And some cash, of
course.
Still, McHale’s ineptitude wasted the best years of one of the best players of all-time.
The
T’Wolves have been holding out on false hope for sometime now. Garnett
and the Wolves have had missed out on the playoffs for three years
since making the Western Conference Finals in 2004. By comparison,
being knocked out in the first round every year proceeding 2004 looked
like a great success. They’ be further out of the playoffs than ever
before, as their goal this season is to try to develop their slew of
young players and see who is worth building around.
Since they
will be playing nothing but young players, look for the Timberwolves to
be one the worst defensive teams in the NBA. They’ll be particularly
bad inside, with Mark Blount posing as their backstop (Jefferson is a
subpar defender himself). Corey Brewer, Randy Foye and Gerald Green all
possess the athleticism to be good defenders down the line, but many
rookies/sophs are undisciplined on this end, looking for steals, but
conceding backdoor cuts and fouling much too often.
In all,
Minnesota won’t be relevant this season, nor the next two. Yes,
breaking out the dynamite was the only option, and they now have a
chance to start over and make it right. But the franchise has one more
move to make before being able to completely proceed with the hopes of
a brighter future – fire Kevin McHale.
SACRAMENTO KINGS – Crab People. (“Taste like crab, talk like people”)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuZ_dWoix68]
Take a look at this roster, and you’re probably thinking, “Hey, that team isn’t bad. Maybe they can make the playoffs.”
Try watching this team sometime. Ugh.
The
two most unprivileged chuckers in the league last year may have been
Mike Bibby and Ron Artest (apologies to Baron Davis before February).
Mike Bibby was playing with a dinged up hand at the beginning of the
year, and boy did it show. He shot 37% from the field in the first two
months of the season, but showed no qualms about continuing to jack it
up. Ron Artest was even worse. Percentage wise, he nearly mirrored
Bibby’s percentage with 37.5%, but I swear, every time he touched the
ball, he was looking to score. He’s not a particularly great
long-distance shooter, but he would take 20-footers when the mood
struck him. His isolation moves off the dribble are pretty miserable,
but he would randomly decide to try to get to the basket all by himself
anyway.
Here’s the worst part: all the while, they had the
blossoming Kevin Martin taking advantage of his opportunities with the
ball, converting at a very high true shooting percentage for the second
consecutive year. Hopefully the Kings refocus their offense toward
Martin, as Bibby and Artest have clearly demonstrated that they should
be secondary options.
After that, the Kings don’t have many
options. Their frontcourt is regressing faster than Colt McCoy at this
point. Brad Miller, Shareef Abdul-Rahim and Kenny Thomas all used to be
pretty nice players, but they are beginning to show their age,
especially on defense. Miller went from slow to being in neutral, and
Abdul-Rahim and Thomas used to be able to make up for their lack of
height with quickness…no longer. Even with Artest, still one of the
better defenders in the league, the Kings were 22nd in defensive
efficiency last year, and figure to get worse, particularly in the
rebounding department.
The Kings have yet again instilled a new
coach, Reggie Theus, who plans to instill a new offensive system based
on off the ball movement, but defense remains their biggest obstacle.
Since Vlade Divac left the once-exciting Kings, the team has slowly
declined to the bottom of the standings. With Mike Bibby constantly
involved in trade-rumors, the Kings may just decide to blow it up for
good and start over with Kevin Martin and whatever draft picks and cap
space they can buy.
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS – Montage. (“Show a
lot of things happening at once, / Remind everyone what’s going on /
And with every shot you show a little improvement /To show all will
take too long / Oh, we want a montage”)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4J_QV_8U6fU]
You
get the feeling that this team is going to be really, really good in
about three years. They have this year’s number one pick, Greg Oden,
the second overall pick from last year’s draft in Lamarcus Aldridge,
and last year’s rookie of the year, Brandon Roy. The montage even
started off very nicely, with the team reportedly getting together to
work out two months before the season tip-off.
That of course is
a sharp change of pace from their recent history – they were jokingly
known as the “Jail-Blazers” for some time. The good times will have to
come gradually, however, as they suffered a major setback when they
learned that Oden would have to miss the entire season due to a
necessary surgery. The turnaround would have been a few seasons long
anyhow since their core is very young, and they traded away their best
player from the last few years, Zach Randolph.
This year, the
Blazers will focus on which players will be worth building around – at
the point and swing positions, they have a glut of young guys who have
yet earn the trust of management. At point guard, the Blazers have
Jarrett Jack and Sergio Rodriguez, both of whom will have to battle
free-agent acquisition Steve Blake for starting rights. Rodriguez is
particularly intriguing for his play-making ability whereas Jack is
more steady with his size and apt defense. On the wings, starter Ime
Udoka left to the Spurs, leaving an opportunity for Martell Webster and
Travis Outlaw to step up. Most importantly, Aldridge and Channing Frye
will have to prove that they can be go-to players and provide adequate
defense since they are both slender power forwards playing in a
conference that has many quality 4s.
The Blazers aren’t really
playoff contenders this year, and they know that. All they want to do
is show a little improvement. Given the embarrassment of the
Jail-Blazers, I think Blazer fans will be able to wait patiently to see
this team bear fruits.
SEATTLE SONICS – It’s Easy, Mmkay. (“With
a little plan you can change your life tooo-day / You dont have to
spend your life addicted to smack / Homeless on the streets giving
handjobs for crack / Follow my plan and very soon you will see-eeyy,
its easy mmkay”)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqjIvg344pI]
While
the arena situation is officially fucked up, the new Sonics basketball
management has completely changed the course of the franchise on the
court. As recent as last year, there was confusion as to what certain
personnel held what titles. Coach Bob Hill constant fought with his
bosses and derided the roster he had. So the owners blew up the
management and decided to employ a winning formula – copy the Spurs.
Did
they ever. The Sonics hired away wunderkind general manager Sam Presti
who made it his first order of business to hire the head assistant
coach of the Spurs, P.J. Carlisemo. With a little luck, the Sonics
found themselves drafting second in the draft and managed to score the
draft’s best player, Kevin Durant.
Essentially, this is Year One
for everyone. There is new management, a new coach, and a new star.
Staples Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis are no longer on the team (Ray
Allen was traded for Wally Sczerbiak and the fifth pick of the draft,
Jeff Green). While the Sonics used to have a fairly nice offense, their
defense was absolutely horrendous. Two years ago, it measured up as the
worst defense IN HISTORY. Expect that to change as P.J. will no doubt
trumpet the importance of defense. Further, the Sonics will have the
personnel to play better defense…let’s just say that Allen and Lewis
tried a little harder on the offensive end. Yes, Durant and Green are
likely to take their rookie lumps, but the Sonics have regained the
services of center Robert Swift, and they traded for defensive stalwart
Kurt Thomas (and got two first round draft picks for taking him!).
Clearly, Presti has a blueprint, and he’s been executing flawlessly so
far.
That said, the Sonics still have some work to do. Their
point guard tandem of Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson are average at best.
The previous management botched three straight drafts by taking center
projects that haven’t panned out – only Robert Swift is passable thus
far. And while everyone knows Durant will absolutely impress at times,
it’s still his rookie season, along with Jeff Green’s. But like the
Blazers, Sonics fans will have something fresh and promising to watch.
However, the team is likely to relocate soon, so the patience really
won’t be there.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS – I’m So Ronery. (“I'm the
smartest most crever most physicarry fit / But nobody else seems to
rearize it / When I change the world maybe they'll notice me / But
until then I'rr just be ronery)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eU5VCG1Rino]
Kobe
Bryant sure doesn’t lack self-awareness – he knows he’s one of the
best, if not the best, players in the league, and he knows he’s in his
prime. And unlike Garnett and Iverson who were quite passive in voicing
their displeasure with their situation until their best years pasted,
Kobe has asked for a trade. And then he took that back. And now no one
really knows what’s going on.
The Lakers had a chance to trade
for Jason Kidd last year, but that would have required trading away
Andrew Bynam. Clearly, superstar and management are at odds here –
Bynam doesn’t offer the best chance to win now while trading for Kidd
would have been an all-in move on the part of management. Neither side
has made a move since the trade demand, so the Lakers enter the season
in a stalemate.
Kobe will once again have little help around
him. Lamar Odom, his alleged sidekick, is as horrible a pairing with
Bryant as Larry Hughes is to Lebron James. The Lakers have three
forwards – Luke Walton, Vladimir Radmanovic and Brian Cook – who all do
the same thing, which is shoot threes from wings and corners and play
marginal (at best) defense. Of the three, only Walton brings another
dynamic to his game, which is his excellent passing ability. The Lakers
also have three marginal centers in Bynam, Kwame Brown and Chris Mihm,
although their games are relatively unique. At point guard, the Lakers
have reacquired Derek Fisher, and he’s pretty much their only hope
there unless Jordan Farmar really steps up. On offense, the Lakers
should be okay because Kobe is a magnificent creator, and they have the
players to space the floor for him. It’s the team defense that’s been
worrisome for the Lakers over the past few years. However, Phil Jackson
has been taking flack for sticking with the Triangle offense more than
anything else.
So the Lakers reside just outside the playoffs in
my eyes…until further notice. With Kobe growing increasingly frustrated
and watching over stars conglomerate across the league it’s more likely
that Kobe leaves before he gets any big time help.
NEW ORLEANS
HORNETS – No Substitute. (“No, baby, there's No substitute / For you
girl / No substitute for you now / You know that it's true / No
substitute”)
[http://downloads.southparkstuff.com/audio/chefsongs/chef111.mp3]
If
you check out the Hornets starting five, you are likely to be a little
impressed. Hey, you’ve got a rising point guard, a money shooter, a
terrific rebounder and shot-blocker, and an underrated scorer at the
most important position in the West (yes, we’re talking power forward
again…how many times have I mentioned this?).
And then you look at the depth chart. Rasual Butler and Melvin Ely? No thanks.
The
Hornets were hit terribly by the injury bug last year, losing David
West, Chris Paul and Peja Stojakovic for extended periods of time.
While that may be a fluke, it has to be concerning since the Hornets
have so little to offer off the bench. The only significant name is
Booby Jackson, and he was the Sixth Man of the Year once…back in 2003.
They were particularly embarrassing on the offensive end, with likes of
Desmond Mason, Devin Brown and Butler each having to contribute over 10
points a game. They weren’t that great on defense either, despite
having Tyson Chandler man the middle. It’s a wonder to me how these
guys won 39 games last year.
When Peja went down (he lasted all
of 13 games), the Hornets were left without any shooters, which is a
shame because Chris Paul can create drive-and-dish looks with the best
of them. Peja is allegedly healthy this year, but back problems never
go away. The Hornets picked up Morris Peterson, who shoots plenty of
three pointers, but isn’t particularly good at doing so (34%, I
believe). Paul himself needs to improve as a shooter so he can get guys
to play up on him a bit more which would set up some blow-by
opportunities.
If the defense can step up a bit more, the
Hornets have a nice shot a making the playoffs since should be able to
lean heavily on Chris Paul and David West to have big years. Having
Peja on the floor for more than 13 games would help immensely if only
for the threat of his shot. Still, if one of the guys on the starting
five goes down, they’ll be in even worse shape than last year. At least
last year they had Devin Brown.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS –
California Homeless. (“California / Is nice to the homeless /
California-nia / Super cool to the homeless / In the city / City of
Santa Monica / Lots of rich people / Giving change to the homeless”)
[http://videovault.morrisvideos.com/videos/south-park---california-love-homeless-remix-yardie01]
General
manager Chris Mullen (one of my favorite players from the 90s, by the
way) used to give out bloated contracts by the fistful (see J.
Richardson, A. Foyle, D. Fisher). Now I think a bum is lucky to get a
quarter out of him. Despite last year’s improbable playoff success,
Mullen refused to give Don Nelson and Baron Davis contract extensions,
did not sign any of his restricted free agents to multi-year contracts,
and traded away the face of the franchise, Jason Richardson. And I say,
well done, because last year was probably a fluke. A fun and refreshing
fluke, yes, but a fluke nonetheless.
Look, no one matched up
with the Mavericks better than the Warriors, Spurs and Suns included.
If you talk basketball with me, I’ve explained why many times over, so
we’ll skip that. Additionally, Matt Barnes played out of his mind,
Stephen Jackson had one great playoff series against the Mavs, and
Baron Davis was motivated (and made some of the plain, flat-out,
fucking luckiest shots ever. Fun, yes, but fucking lucky nonetheless).
Could
the individual success of the players be attributed to Nelson’s
small-ball style? Arguably. But given the history of the guys on the
team, I couldn’t bet on them making it back to the playoffs…but I can
predict that they will just sneak in.
The problem with the team
is also their greatest strength – they can become the craziest,
boldest, intense team…when they are pressured. Against the Mavs, the
reveled in it; against the Jazz, they really didn’t feel any pressure.
They already exceeded expectations. Like with almost every single Don
Nelson led team in history, that was good enough.
This team is
too inconsistent to have a banner regular season nor to win four
seven-game series. Take the Warriors for what they are: an
unpredictable, crazy bunch who are the most fun guys to watch when they
are hot and inspired. Actually, they kind of remind of the Doors in
concert – you either going to get the show of your life, or Jim
Morrison would get kicked off stage. I figure it’ll be a half-and-half
mix (41-41).
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES – Three Tacos Two Tostadas And a
Soda Pop. (“Baby let's make a run for the border, I've got a hunger
only tacos can stop. / I know exactly what I ordered / Three tacos two
tostadas and a soda pop.”)
[http://downloads.southparkstuff.com/audio/cartmansongs/705_runforthebordersong.mp3]
Last
season, their Spanish leader was asking for a trade. This season, they
are pairing him up with one of his best friends, Spanish superstar Juan
Carlos Navarro.
Usually, I over-predict the success of one team,
and this one is likely to be it. But really, what’s not to like about
this team? They just got a new coach, Marc Ivaroni (of the Phoenix
Suns), who is actually a defensive specialist, but is likely to employ
some of the running style as well. Pau Gasol is coming back this season
in full health. They essentially got three new guards on this team –
Navarro, Kyle Lowry, who was injured almost all of last year but has
ascended to starting lineup, and a superstar to be, Mike Conley, Jr.
Trust me, all three are really talented and should provide a refreshing
offense for the Grizz. Should those guys wilt under expectations, hey,
you’ve also got Mighty Mouse, Damon Stoudemire. Tack on some
development from Rudy Gay and Hakim Warrick, and you’ve got a nice,
young core that you can succeed with to some degree now.
The bad
news – the Grizzlies are painfully thin in the frontcourt. Last year,
their defense was the worst in the league, mostly because the rail-thin
Stromile Swift and Warrick were defending the paint. Memphis signed
Darko Milicic to be their inside presence, but he’s actually overrated
as a defender. Yes, he block shots like nobody’s business, but he’s
softer one-on-one and doesn’t always give his best effort (that’s
putting it lightly). Gasol isn’t that much of a defender himself.
Hopefully,
Ivaroni will use his backcourt’s athleticism to improve that woeful
defense from a year ago. It’s unlikely that the Grizz will be as bad as
last year, if only for effort alone. Let’s face it – after the
midseason coaching change, the team just mailed it in. Tanking wouldn’t
be too harsh of a term to use here either.
So, I say playoffs.
I’m probably wrong here, but at least I’m not being over-optimistic
about teams that everyone else is (*cough* Warriors! *cough* the
Knicks).
UTAH JAZZ – Third Grade. (“We learned wondrous things
from a teacher so nice / Sat on marshmallow desks with teddy-bear
smiles / The world seemed to all make sense / but that sense seems to
slowly fade / After Third Grade”)
[http://downloads.southparkstuff.com/audio/cartmansongs/412_cartmansings.mp3]
“A
teacher so nice” is probably not a phrase anyone would lend to Jerry
Sloan (well, maybe if you ask John Amechi), but the Jazz are having
that old familiar feeling – expectations.
Those expectations are
going to be more lofty than they should be because they advanced to the
conference finals. That milestone was cosmetic, however, as they barely
edged out the Rockets in round one, and had the best match-up they
could hope for when they drew the Warriors. To no one’s surprise, they
were quickly dismissed by the Spurs, losing four games to one.
If
the Jazz are to improve, it will have to be completely internal – the
Jazz did next to nothing in the offseason. I think everyone expects
Deron Williams to take one more step. He was impressive in the
playoffs, no doubt, but I’m fairly certain that his draft-mate Chris
Paul is a better player, and will have a better 2007-2008 season.
Williams can improve his game if he can regain his three-point
touch…isn’t that all those Illini players did in that Final Four run?
The Jazz have a less heralded young player in Paul Millsap, but that
guy is better that a 15-minute player. Unfortunately, he’s playing
behind Carlos Boozer. At best, Boozer and Mehmet Okur will repeat their
numbers from last year, which were good enough for All-Star
recognition. The work of those four set the foundation for the
third-best offense in the NBA last year…I bet you wouldn’t have guessed
that. Basically, the Jazz you saw last year will be the same this
year…and practically the same throughout all of Sloan’s tenure. He’s
going to foul your team, and you’re going to foul his team. And the
questions for the Jazz will be the same as well, only more severe: (1)
what will they do at 2-guard, and (2) what the hell is wrong with
Kirlenko?
The Jazz lost their starter at shooting guard, Derek
Fisher, and will have to depend on the very crappy Gordan Giricek if
youngsters C.J. Miles or Ronnie Brewer don’t step up. Fisher was also
one of the few long-range shooters on the team, which further drags
down a potentially great offense. Defenses don't have to respect on the
perimeter as none of those guys hit the three, nor does AK-47. That’s
truly a shame because Boozer commands a lot of attention inside (and
Millsap can too if he’s in the game).
That’s part of the problem
with question two. Kirlienko is simply a horrible fit for this offense.
With the offense running through Boozer, AK-47 is relegated to a
shooting role…great for Okur’s game, terribly suppressing for the
highest-paid player on the team. You know Kirilenko’s game: he’s a
ball-hawking, perpetual-motion player. You saw him at his best when the
Jazz were matched up against the Warriors in the playoffs. After
leading the Russians to an Olympic birth in the FIBA Euroleague
tournament, Kirilenko finally expressed his dismay in being restricted
in Sloan’s system. He said he hated playing in that system, and wanted
a trade, even offering to void his contract (not possible).
Clearly,
he will not be effective if he’s not putting forth his best energy –
his game is predicated on energy. The Jazz only hope to build on their
success from last year will be for AK to resurrect his numbers from two
years ago. If not, the Jazz are stuck with a maximum contract for four
years with an unhappy player giving you nine points a game. You think
any team is going to want to trade for that?
DENVER NUGGETS –
Let’s Get Out and Vote. (“Let's get out and vote! / Let's make our
voices heard. / We've been given the right to choose / between a douche
and a turd.”)
[http://www.southparkstudios.com/downloads/preview/?id=5986]
At
the time that Iverson was traded to the Nuggets, both he and Carmelo
Anthony vowed that there would not be a problem between the two
concerning shot volume. Didn’t exactly work out that way. Coach George
Karl had to urge Carmelo to “play more like Tracy McGrady,” and made an
odd deal with him about his shot selection – he allow Melo to shoot 10
jumpers in a game only if he shot 10 free throws. Strangely enough,
Melo agreed, though a player with his scoring ability should have to be
told that. Iverson, meanwhile, played nice at first, but literally shot
the Nuggets out of the playoffs versus the Spurs. He attempted over 20
shots a game even though (a) Bruce Bowen was hounding him into a
horrible shooting percentage (with limited free throws, including one
game with zero FT attempts), and (b) Melo and Nene were absolutely
destroying the Spurs.
This year, the Nuggets will probably have
a more even distribution of points, particularly in their front court.
Nene came on strong at the end of the season, and was even better in
the playoffs. He also finally entering a season completely healthy, and
is still young, so don’t be surprised to see this guy put up stout
numbers. Speaking of finally entering a season healthy, do you remember
Kenyon Martin? Yeah, he’s the guy that the Nuggets signed to a maximum
contract a few years ago. Well, K-Mart will get a chance to earn some
of his money in a friendly-system for him – Karl’s teams are go-go
teams, and K-Mart has had plenty of experience of finishing
fast-breaks…thank you again, Jason Kidd. Behind those two are two
serviceable bench guys, Edwardo Najera and Linus Klieza. Tack on last
year’s defensive player of the year (bullshit, ahem) Marcus Camby
(cough, should’vegonetoTimDuncan, oh, excuse me!) and MVP candidate
Anthony, and the Nuggets have the finest and deepest frontline in the
NBA.
Now about that backcourt. Yes, Iverson is back there, but
he certainly not the superstar of the Sixers’ days, and he’ll really
have to be more picky with his shot selection now that he’ll be seeing
a lot of time at point guard. Their projected starting point guard,
Chucky Atkins, broke his hand, and will be unavailable for the first
few weeks of the playoffs. Atkins is a nice fit for the Nuggets because
Iverson will end up doing most of the ballhandling and he can space the
floor with his outside shooting. Outside shooting has been a key flaw
of this team for a good while now (aside from having a few headcases,
coach included). Their best three-point threat is also a threat to the
team – J.R. Smith. There is no question that J.R. can shoot (but who
shot J.R.?). The question, rather, is his head and lack of consistency.
Last season, he approached 20 points a game early, got in a fight with
Nate Robinson and earned a 10-game suspension, never regained his hot
touch, but was still a scoring threat, and then was benched in the
playoffs because Karl (rightfully) decided that his shot selection and
defensive lapses was killing the team. And this is the guy they are
really depending on to step up.
This team is really knocking on
the door to join the West’s elite. They have the talent to do it, but
so much has to go right. Can Iverson really adjust to playing second
banana? Can J.R. keep his head on straight? Will Camby, Nene and K-Mart
really stay healthy? And finally, will Carmelo finally join the ranks
of Lebron and Wade? These things are all possible. But even if the
Nuggets get all the breaks, they are guaranteed to meet a legitimate
title contender in round one, and will have to beat three more if they
are to be the champs. | | |
| Yesterday afternoon, I turned on the TV without so much as looking what
was on as I headed to the bathroom. While relieving myself, I thought I
heard a familiar voice.
I listened: "Brian Scalbrine doesn't
roll to basket after making a screen. He likes to step out, and
defenders should take note of this."
That voice belonged to Hubie Brown, who was analyzing one of the most insignificant players in the NBA.
I couldn't be happier.
The
NBA preseason has started, and the regular season opener (Spurs vs.
Blazers) is less than three weeks away. This being the case, it felt
like the right time to make my season predictions.
Once again,
I've used a gimmick to present each team -- this time, I've taken
familiar songs from the South Park series to present each team, along
with other tunes created from Stone and Parker from their animated
musicals South Park: Bigger, Longer Uncut, and Team America. By the
way, skip The Heartbreak Kid this weekend, and rent either one of those
two movies. They are seriously the best sing-alongs since Mary Poppins.
Anyhow,
if you've got a lunch break at work or time between class, I suggest
that you indulge yourself in this if you are at all interested in the
upcoming NBA season. Links to the South Park songs are provided for
further entertainment.
[Note: predictions are for the regular season, not the playoffs.]
THE EASTERN CONFERENCE
15. INDIANA PACERS – Let’s Fighting Love. (“Hey hey, let’s go / [Japanese lyrics] / Protect my balls!”)
[http://www.southparkstudios.com/downloads/download.php?file_id=20773]
Well,
I decided I’d roll with this J-Pop song because no one can understand
what the hell Larry Bird is doing with this team just like no one can
decipher what the lyrics of this song are (I’m convinced that if you
ask Crow, he’ll just make something up). The Pacers are in serious need
of rebuilding, but it seems general manager Larry Bird refuses to
acknowledge it. Last year, Bird inherited two large contracts (Troy
Murphy and Mike Dunleavy the Lesser ) in a midseason trade when he
should be trying to gain cap space. And instead of starting the youth
movement, Bird has refused to trade the 10-year vet Jermaine O’Neal
even though there have been several teams interested in trading for him
(most notably, the Lakers and Nets). So this year, Bird has decided to
protect his balls with the likes of O’Neal and Tinsley once again
leading his team with minimal changes to his team. Seriously, their
biggest signing was Travis Diener. No, I’m not making this name up.
Actually,
the Pacers had one big shake-up at their head coaching position – Rick
Carlisle is gone in favor of the three-point happy Jim O’Brian.
Considering that their best three-point shooter from last year, Al
Harrington, was traded away, I can’t say that hiring made a lot of
sense. At least the Pacers will be a little more fun to watch – all
they did last year was walk the ball up the court and dump it in to
O’Neal. Unless Danny Granger and Ike Digou make some serious
improvement, the Pacers can officially bury the good times Reggie
Miller gave to them.
14. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS – I Can Change.
(“Some people say that I'm a bad guy. / They may be right, they may be
right. / But it's not as if I don't try. / I just fuckk up, try as I
might.”
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjHk1vTwv-I]
If
general manager Billy King is to change from his, to be frank, terrible
managing ways, now is the time to do so. The 76ers are officially in
rebuilding mode after trading their marquee players Chris Webber and
franchise icon Allen Iverson. Now, the 76ers will attempt to build
around another AI – Andre Iguodala. The franchise doesn’t seem to be in
any hurry as they made no outstanding offseason moves. You really mean
there is no market for a $10M center (Dalembert) whose development can
be best described as marginal, and for an immobile, overpaid
three-point specialist (Korver)? Yes, the only thing in Billy King’s
way of completely bringing down the house is own fuck-ups.
The
Sixers have a bunch of young guys – Rodney Carney, Thaddeous Young and
Willie Green – that have a long way to go before being ready to become
solid contributors to their team, but alas, that’s really
Philadelphia’s only hope for this season. Thankfully, they have one of
the finest set-up point guards in Andre Miller. The Sixers showed signs
of hope at the end of last season making an improbable chase at the
last playoff spot that just fell short. However, I don’t see them
building on that success. We should see this team tanking by February.
13.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS – Everyone Has AIDS. (“My father (AIDS!) / My sister
(AIDS!) / My uncle and my cousin and her best friend (AIDS AIDS AIDS!)
/ The gays and the straights / And the whites and the spades / Everyone
has AIDS!”)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piChUkmYjVI]
The
Bobcats were one of the more unfortunate teams concerning overall team
health. Pretty much all of their significant players missed a good
portion of the season due to injury. Okafor had AIDS (15 games missed),
Sean May had AIDS (52 games), and their unnoticed superstar Gerald
Wallace was hindered by a concussion at the beginning of the season
before returning to form. Even their big trade acquisition, Jason
Richardson, is injury prone, with 31 games missed due to AIDS last year.
Well,
it didn’t take long for the Bobcats’ misfortune to continue. Sean May
has announced that he’s undergoing surgery that will sideline him for
the entire season, which is particularly troublesome because Charlotte
really lacks frontcourt depth. The Bobcats will have to play smallball,
as they have a nice set of wing players – Wallace, Richardson, Matt
Carroll and Walter Hermann. They also drafted NBA-ready rookie Jared
Dudley, and they also have the dud Adam Morrison. That’s about the only
position where they have depth; as I’ve mentioned, there really isn’t
anyone behind Okafor, and the Bobcats did not retain their effective
back-up point guard, Brevin Knight.
It’s a shame, really – I
really liked the Bobcats lineup, and was ready to make them a playoff
team in my predictions. But, again, the Bobcats are a team that is
particularly hurt by injuries because of their sub-par back-ups at
center and point guard. However, their propensity to stagnate on
offense should be lessened with Richardson’s addition. This addition
should help point guard Raymon Felton especially, as he had to force a
lot of action in their half-court offense. Given Hermann’s performance
at the end of the year and expected development from a very young team,
the Bobcats can still surprise people. If there is one team in the East
that I misestimated, it will be this one – with good fortune, they can
play for the right to be the Bulls or Celtics punching bags in round
one.
12. MILWAUKEE BUCKS – Getting Gay With Kids Choir Song.
(“There's a place called the rainforest that truly sucks ass / Let's
knock it all down and get rid of it fast / You say 'save the
rainforest', but what do you know? / You've never been to the
rainforest before!.”)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0n9VLsDVK0&mode=related&search=]
I
am not at all enamored with Bucks’ collection of players. On paper,
they look pretty nice – Michael Redd, Mo Williams, Andrew Bogut,
Charlie Villanueva, Chairman Yi. But, uh, who is going to get their
rebounds? They let Ruben Patterson, easily their most ferocious player,
leave in free agency. And who exactly is going to defend the other
team’s post players? Bogut, Yi and Charlie V are all perimeter-oriented
players who masquerade as 4s and 5s. I’m going to be completely forward
with you guys – this team has the biggest collection of pansies in the
NBA (with the exception of Redd on offense – he actually gets to the
line a lot more often than you would expect).
The Bucks are a
shot-happy team with a bunch of guys that can actually stroke it. Redd,
of course, is the best of the bunch, and he shoots nearly six a game.
But a team can hardly depend on shots falling every game, especially
with a roster of players who don’t even pass as decent defenders. If
they played in the West, they would get beat up every day because of
all the skilled post-playing power forwards the better conference has
to offer. I think the Bucks, if they are so inclined to keep a plethora
of perimeter players, should try to get a point guard that can push the
pace and pass. If defense is what brings them down, they should play at
a quicker pace – they only ranked 11th in pace factor last year. Hmm,
let me think, could T.J. Ford be the type of player that can do that?
Yes, that makes sense! Too bad they traded him last year. Unless their
new coach instills a semi-successful defensive system, this team is
headed for the lottery again.
11. NEW YORK KNICKS – I’ve Got Me
Some Apples. (“Loo loo loo, I've got some apples. / Loo loo loo, you've
got some too. / Loo loo loo, let’s get together / find what we can, loo
loo loo”)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-X5P7FEHSY4]
Isiah
Thomas is insatiable when it comes to arranging his roster (who can
blame him, the Knicks suck). So once again, Isiah has traded for a big
contract, this time in the form of Zach Randolph. The Knicks’ offseason
has been very curious, and I can’t help but ponder what the hell
they’ve been thinking, starting with that trade:
Okay, so they
already have one fat, overpaid player who likes to play in the post, so
they traded for another? Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph do just about the
same things – they score on the block, they gain weight in the summer
and they don’t exert themselves on defense. The only difference between
the two is that Randolph can step back and shoot, and he’s a much
better rebounder (let me be more fair to Zach – he’s a good rebounder,
and Eddy is pretty awful). Yes, they got more talent out of the deal,
but let’s not forget about…
David Lee. He was actually their best
player last year, and now even more of his minutes are comprised
because of the addition of Randolph. You think Isiah is going to let
his big signings sit on the bench behind a late first rounder?
Allen Houston was signed. First, I wasn’t aware that he had operating
knees. And secondly, where exactly does he fit in the rotation? The
Knicks already have 19 guys on their roster.
The Anucha Browne
Sanders sexual harassment trial. James Dolan and MSG could have easily
settled this case out of court (let’s face it, she just wanted the
money), but Dolan decided that his money was better wasted on Jerome
James. Instead, the Knicks organization went through a very
embarrassing trial, which included…
Stephon Marbury. He was
chuckling when he told his story of a sexual encounter with a MSG
employee. Then, of course, was that ridiculous interview he did on
“Mike’d Up,” that (sadly) has been taken off of YouTube. He also
defended Michael Vick when he was convicted of dogfighting.
And while we are on the topic of sexual harassment…
10.
ATLANTA HAWKS – Sexual Harassment Panda. (“Don't say that, don't touch
there / Don't be nasty says the silly bear / He's come to tell you
what's right and wrong / Sexual Harassment Panda!”)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqLv8rDwsp8]
This
song is dedicated to Steve Belkin, one owner of the Atlanta Hawks
ownership group who is trying to claim ownership of the entire team
while the other owners are trying to kick him out. The Hawks can’t make
any moves without the consensus of all the owners. And Belkin is pretty
much opposed to everything. For instance, the Hawks could have been
involved in a trade that netted them Amare Stoudemire, who’s merely a
First Team All-NBA Player (undeserved, I know, but this way my point
sounds more impressive). Apparently two first-rounders, which happened
to be Al Hortford and Acie Law IV, was too much for a franchise
cornerstone.
So what did the Hawks accomplish in the offseason?
Nothing. They made absolutely no deals. Needless to say, it’s unusual
for a 30 win team to say, “You know what, I like this team just how it
is.” Belkin is so tight, even Howie Mandel couldn’t get him to make a
deal (ugh, a Howie Mandel joke).
Thankfully for the Hawks, they
should improve even as they stand pat. Their core is super young, and
each player has shown marked improvement since joining the team. Josh
Smith is their superstar in the wings, who elevated his scoring average
to over 20 a game in the late part of the season. Their other Josh,
Josh Childress, is one of the most efficient shooters in the game,
posting a true shooting percentage of 58.6 which was one of the highest
marks amongst players at his position. Their Williams tandem, Sheldon
and Marvin, also improved throughout the year. And of course, they are
anchored by All-Star Joe Johnson. That’s right…the Hawks have an
All-Star on their team. However, the Hawks will need to get something
out of their point guards – Speedy Claxton disappointed badly, and
Tyrone Lue…is Tyrone Lue. I doubt Acie Law is the answer, as the Hawks
are in need of a set-up man or a guy with three-point efficiency – Law
fits neither bill. Still, the Hawks have a nice collection of talent,
and with some spirited coaching and decent point guard play, this team
could challenge for the playoffs.
9. NEW JERSEY NETS – I’ve Got
Something in My Front Pocket. (“I’ve got something in my front pocket
for you / Why don’t you reach down in my pocket and see what it is /
Then grab onto it, it’s just for you / Give a little squeeze and say,
‘How do you do?’”)
[http://www.southparkstudios.com/downloads/preview/?id=4813]
Has
anyone been more responsible for getting players long, big contracts
than Jason Kidd? Okay, Billy King, but check this out: Kenyon Martin
(max contract, played one game last year), Richard Jefferson ($12.2M,
13.88 PER (below average)), and most recently, Mikki Moore ($5.5M,
career high 9.8 pts last year at age 31). All these players are limited
to exactly one skill-set: jump high. Kidd does the rest.
At age
34, one has to wonder if Kidd will begin his decline. I don’t think so
– he has great size for a point guard, and court vision doesn’t
diminish with age. And although his legs may getting slow, he’s a
passer, and the ball moves faster than the player. Kidd’s best
high-flying teammate, Vince Carter, signed an extension with the Nets
for four more years, so the Nets are set with the Kidd-Carter-Jefferson
triumvirate for quite some time.
Is that a good thing? Since
going to Finals in consecutive years, the Nets success has slowly
declined, and they didn’t exactly make a big splash during the
offseason. This team is the same old Nets team with same old problem –
if they can’t get out on the break, they are completely dependant on
Carter to do something, usually in isolation. Carter can’t kick the
ball out, because they really don’t have any shooters, with the
exception of Nachbar, but he probably had a fluke year. In fact, the
Nets were eliminated from the playoffs because Carter passed to Nachbar
for a potential game-winning three that fell short. Microcosm of the
season.
The Nets were pretty mediocre last season despite
advancing to the second round of the playoffs. Even with Nenad Kristc
returning to health, this team is no longer a contender in the East –
their competition has improved this year more than ever. So long as the
team has Kidd, they are playing for now, but so long as they are tied
to Carter and even more restrictively to Jefferson, the Nets don’t have
too many cards to play. Which of course means, the Nets aren’t going
anywhere.
8. MIAMI HEAT – Up There. (“They say I don't belong /
I must stay below alone / Because of my beliefs I'm supposed to stay
where the evil is sown. / What is evil anyway?”)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOtVR0GQvlU]
Dwayne Wade! Shaquille O’Neal! Watch them shoot 20 free throws a game tonight on ESPN!
I’ve
never seen a more boring team get so much airtime (don’t you dare make
a Spurs joke here). This team has exactly two options, and
unfortunately for Heat fans, you cannot reasonably expect them to show
up for every game. Their best three players are guaranteed to miss at
least 15 games this season: Wade is still recovering from his surgery,
Shaq took on the weight those fat camp kids lost, and Jason Williams
will probably require artificial legs by season’s end. After that, what
do the Heat have?
With Shaq in the paint and Wade driving into
it, Miami needs shooters to make defenders pay for collapsing inside.
Two years ago, they basically made Damon Jones. Last year, Jason Kapono
easily beat out everyone as the three-point champion. However, the Heat
lost Jason Kapono, as well as Eddie Jones and James Posey, their first,
second and third best three point shooters. Wow! Now Wade gets to kick
it out to Antoine Walker with a 27.5 percent chance that he makes it.
No one who shoots that poorly should shoot over half of his shots from
downtown, but Walker shoots so many threes because, in his own words,
“There are no four-pointers.”
And if Shaq and/or Wade go down?
Alonzo Mourning is the best back-up center in the league, but he is
hardly a player that you lean an offense on. And in Wade’s absence,
only Jason Williams is capable of creating offense on the team. Yes, if
Shaq and Wade stay healthy, this team is playoff worthy, but that is
hardly the goal of this Heat team. They are two years removed of a
title, and Shaq is 35 with his weight linearly increasing with his age.
This team has to play to win today, but Pat Riley sold out his team to
win that 2006 title by giving ridiculous contracts to Antoine Walker
and Jason Williams. Riley will try to milk wins out of this team by
once again slowing the game as much as possible – by limiting offensive
possessions, the lesser team has a chance to win (and lessen chances to
embarrass how truly bad their offense is – 21st in offensive efficiency
last year). That also gives Shaq a chance to make it up the court.
With
Shaq’s and Wade’s name on the marquee, casual fans probably expect this
team to make another run at the Finals, dismissing last year as a fluke
due to injuries. Well, that’s part of the game, and these superstars
are the most susceptible to it this side of Yao and T-Mac. The fact is
this – Shaq is older, and this team has lesser talent than last year.
They will struggle to make the playoffs. Get used to it, Heat fans.
7. WASHINGTON WIZARDS – You’ll Do a Line. (“I’ll snort K, and you’ll snort K, honey”)
[http://www.southparkstudios.com/downloads/preview/?id=4819]
The
Wizards Big Three are all very like minded – I’m going to score, screw
you. The trio of Arenas, Butler and Jamison might be the most gifted
threesome on offense, and also the most selfish. Arenas has a Usage
Rate (number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes) of 29.8,
Butler has a rate of 21.7, and Jamison has a rate of 20.9. These aren’t
terribly high for individuals, but together, the rest of the team
rarely sees the ball except on offensive rebounds. The incentive seems
to work, as the Wizards have one of the best rebounding squads with
Eton Thomas and Brenden Haywood splitting time at center. With the
scoring prowess of the Big Three and the big men’s ability to grab
their misses, the Wizards are one of finest offensive teams in the NBA.
On
defense, they again follow Gilbert’s lead. That is to say, this team
really doesn’t care for playing defense. Even though they have quick
and lengthy players like Arenas, Butler and Stevenson, the Wizards just
seem disinterested on this end. The Wizards are wildly undisciplined
when on defense; instead of honing onto their individual assignments,
the Wizards cheat a bunch on passing lanes. Many teams are beginning to
pattern their style around the Phoenix Suns, but teams like the Wizards
have missed the mark on how well the Suns (sometimes) play defense. The
Suns are no immovable object by any means, but at least their defense
is average or better. The Wizards’ defense ranked a miserable 28th in
defensive efficiency, just ahead of the Grizzlies (who mailed-in half
the season) and the Bucks.
Still, the Wizards led the conference
about midway through the season, and were primed to be competitive in
the playoffs. However, injuries to their All-Stars, Arenas and Butler,
took them out at the end of the season, and left the Wizards limping to
seventh place in the East where they were quickly dismissed by the
Cavs. The fact that Arenas is coming off surgery to his knee should
raise concern, but Arenas is the last person you should doubt. His
determination will lead the Wiz back to the playoffs.
6. TORONTO
RAPTORS – Hey People, You’ve Gotta Drive Hybrids Already. (“Hybrids are
for people now, people now / Group of people driving people now / Get a
hybrid, be good people now.”)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3UDyuPgEwY]
The
rising influx of foreign-born (particularly European) NBA players has
pretty much split the basketball fan base in two. There is one camp
that feels that the European players are less athletic and physically
weaker than the Ford/Chevy players, and that they ruin the game with
their flopping. There are NBA teams that have completely ignored these
pool of players, such as the Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks. Larry
Brown is on personal mission to make sure foreign players never get to
play.
I’m not in that camp. The most innovate teams – the
Mavericks, Kings and Spurs – were the first to scout and develop these
players, and for their forward-thinking, they have been amongst the
premier teams in the league in the past decade. Not surprisingly,
almost every team is copying this model now. Just check out last year:
a European player won the MVP (three years in a row that a non-American
earned the distinction); the Spurs won the championship with an
All-Star Frenchman and an All-Star Argentine (they’ve won three of the
past five titles); and a European-born player was drafted first overall
in the draft (three of the last six are foreign-born). Who drafted
Bargnani, the European hybrid forward with the length of a center and
shooting touch of a two-guard? Bryan Colangelo, general manager of the
Raptors. Colangelo was the guy who took a chance on an Italian coach
that wanted to play a European-style game. As a result, the Suns have
made deep playoff runs in the past three years.
Colangelo has
brought that model to the Toronto Raptors. As mentioned, he drafted
Bargnani a year ago, he traded for Rasho Nesterovic (Slovenia), signed
Jose Calderon (Spain), Jorge Garbajosa (Spain) and Anthony Parker (who
starred overseas). All were significant role players in a very
successful season. This offseason, Colangelo continued his trend by
trading for Carlos Delfino (Argentina).
Of course, all these
players merely compliment their shining star, Chris Bosh. A unique
power forward himself, Bosh has become the best big man in the East. He
anchors a surprisingly balanced team – they were eighth in offensive
efficiency and twelfth on the defensive end. This team is primarily a
jump shooting team, and with the addition of Jason Kapono and Delfino,
they’ll look to convert more threes created by T.J. Ford’s amazing
quickness to the basket. They are also adept at finding cutters to the
basket, as most of them are familiar with the European style of play.
On defense, they are at their best when Nesterovic is in, as he is
their only guy in the frontcourt with length and width (Bosh and
Bargnani are as wiry as I am). However, I anticipate that the Raptors
will try to play even smaller this year to get Kapono in. It’s hard to
say a bad thing about this team except that so many players had
exceptional years last year, it will be difficult to improve upon. But
perhaps with a full season of playing one system (try tried to
run-and-gun early in the season, and it failed), and getting even more
out of Bargnani, this team could be the sleeper for tops in the East.
5.
ORLANDO MAGIC –Wild Wild West. (“Well, I'm a badass cowboy living in a
cowboy's / Age, wicky wicky scratch yo yo bang bang / Me and Artemus
Clyde Frog go save / Salma Hayek from the big metal spider”)
[http://downloads.southparkstuff.com/audio/cartmansongs/307_wildwildwest.mp3]
It
seems that Dwight Howard has inherited a running mate for the next six
years – the very, very rich Rashard Lewis. The Magic splurged on the
top free agent of the year by signing him to a maximum contract that
will retain him for six years. Additionally, he was acquired in a
sign-and-trade deal that also cost the Magic a few second-rounders.
Considering that Lewis has made exactly one All-Star team in his nine
year career, I’ll say that the Magic got one hell of a bargain.
Sarcasm
aside, the Magic will improve greatly with the Lewis signing even if it
completely cripples their financial flexibility. The Magic really
didn’t have any play makers on offense last year. Jameer Nelson had an
absolute disastrous season, as turned the ball over and again while
never finding his shooting stroke all season. Dwight Howard is a beast
when he gets the ball in arm’s reach of the hoop – in fact, he led the
league in total dunks. However, his game is still very limited, and
Magic cannot run an offense through him. There was Grant Hill who could
shoot off the dribble and create for others, but he’s gone. Turkoglu is
a nice weapon, but he’s just a catch-and-shoot guy. Lewis is a
versatile scorer, who has three-point range, some dribbling ability and
great height (6’10”) for his position. Lewis will undoubtedly be their
go-to-guy this season, a role the Magic desperately needed to fill.
The
Magic had a pretty nice defense last year, ranking seventh overall,
largely due to Dwight Howard’s dominance on the boards. The Magic will
figure to be even better on defense this year with new coach Stan Van
“The Mexican” Gundy (note: nickname not acknowledged by the NBA…nor
pretty much anyone that doesn’t know me). If there’s one thing that Van
Gundy’s hate (besides Pat Riley), it’s lethargic defenders. Van Gundy
had the Heat playing great defense when he coached, and the two rosters
(2005 Heat and 2008 Magic) compare well.
Howard will continue
his ascension to stardom while Nelson should rebound from his highly
disappointing year. Van Gundy will see to it that the defense remains
good if not better than last year, and Lewis will be given every
opportunity to justify his contract (it can’t get any worse for him –
every analyst has completely blasted this signing). Check it out, Magic
fans – you get to have expectations for your team again!
4. DETROIT PISTONS – I Am the Dawg. (“I got some badass guys to help me / I only had to pay them 15 bucks”)
[http://www.southparkstudios.com/downloads/preview/?id=6880]
Spurs
coach Gregg Popovich likes to tell his players this phrase: “Get over
yourself.” This Pistons team really ought to take heed of that nugget
of wisdom.
Ever since they easily beat the Lakers in the 2004
Finals, the Pistons have felt that they never got their due respect.
Yes, it was true that the media focused entirely on the Lakers’
collapse and subsequent breaking up without so much as acknowledging
the Pistons’ dominance in that series. So in 2005, the Pistons rode an
us-against-the-world attitude to get themselves back in Finals,
narrowly losing to San Antonio. Larry Brown had all but packed his bags
to New York before the series was over, so Pistons took on a
fuck-you-Larry-Brown battle cry in 2006 and won a season’s best 64
games. Arguing amongst themselves, they nearly lost to the Cavaliers
(“Even the sun shines on a dog’s asshole sometimes,” Rasheed Wallace
said) before eventually falling to the Heat in the conference finals.
Last
year, they decided to prove their badass-ness by…whining. The Pistons
were charged with more technical fouls than any other team in the
league; both Rasheed Wallace and Richard Hamilton were nearly suspended
one game for exceeding 18 T’s in a season (they had a few of them
retroactively rescinded). I like to call this team the Pissy-tons.
Seriously, no team acts as entitled as they do.
Again, they
folded in the playoffs with just about every player disappearing
offensively, particularly Chauncey “Big Shot” Billups (note: quotation
marks meant to be read with a sarcastic connotation). With Billups,
Wallace and Hamilton already peaking, one suspects that their glory
days are past them. However, the Pistons front office has done a good
job of preparing them for the future. They’ve got a nice collection of
young talent – in fact, Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson and rookie Rodney
Stuckley are all good enough to contribute now (and signed to very
reasonable deals). The Pistons hope to lean on this bunch, as the vets
should probably be given rest during the regular season to save
themselves for the regular season. I suspect that the Pistons starting
five have really worn themselves in the past two seasons, as their
bench has been very suspect over the last few years. Now, they may
potentially have a strength there, and the infusion of young players
might just spark the vets to play with more enthusiasm than smugness.
Still,
I think we’ve seen the best of the older Pistons already. Billups and
Wallace are clearly in decline, and these are their go-to guys in the
playoffs. Coach Flip Saunders has shown a reluctance of giving prime
time to the other guys on his squad. Unless the entire team can accept
the young players – first, the Pistons are a stubborn group, and
second, the young guys need to prove they can play – I think we know
what to expect from Detroit: a nice regular season that just falls
short of reaching the Finals.
3. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS –
Lemmiwinks. (“Now that you're the Gerbil king has more adventures to go
on! Fly away to faraway lands and to the setting sun! So many enemies
and battles yet to fight! For Lemmiwinks the Gerbil King's tale is told
throughout the night!”)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeTF3PnePu0]
If
you excuse the Finals in which the Cavaliers were completely
overwhelmed by the Spurs, you have to be impressed with what LeBron did
in spite of a horribly assembled roster and a completely uninventive
coach. Yes, the King decided that he would wait until January to
actually start playing high level basketball, but as the Pistons have
shown us in the past two years, it’s the finish that matters. And man,
did LeBron really save his best for (nearly) last. In a performance for
the ages, LeBron scored the final 25 points for his team in a
series-turning Game 5 overtime win against their nemesis, the Detroit
Pistons. And yes, Lebron really had to do it all.
The Cavaliers
never really settled on their starting point guard all season, first
giving the job to the decaying Eric Snow by default. They then gave it
to rookie Daniel Gibson who was decent, but then got hurt. They plugged
in Larry Hughes for a while, then in the playoffs, Gibson inexplicably
blew up, providing a few knock-out blows to the Pistons. The next best
skilled offensive player on the Cavs was Big Z, Zydrunas Ilgauskas.
However, his game sharply declined, and he often was taken out of the
finish of games because of his immobility on offense. After that,
Lebron had a hodgepodge of unremarkable, streaky players on offense.
So
what of the Cavaliers this year? Well, I believe I’ve just explained
that. To clarify, they made no changes until last week, signing the
best player in UTSA basketball history, Devin Brown (hold your
applause). In fact, the Cavaliers haven’t even retained their roster
from last year…yet. Anderson Varejao and Sasha (Sasha is a very sissy
name, isn’t it? And why do players named Sasha like to act like big
shit when they are really pussies? Wait, what were we talking about?)
Pavlovic, major contributors from last year, remain unsigned.
Let’s
say that the two come back. How do the Cavs repeat their success from
last year? Again, their team is practically the same from last year, so
they’ll use the same approach. Lebron will be their do-everything guy
on offense. Hopefully for the Cavs, two things will happen: (1) Lebron
remembers that the new basketball season begins on Halloween and not
New Year’s Day, and (2) Lebron’s jump shot from the FIBA Americas
tournament carries over to this season. Lebron was scorching (insert
Paris Hilton vagina reference here), hitting nearly 70% of his shots in
that tournament, and nearly having the same mark on three point shots
(!). The rest of the offense comes from the Cavs plethora of
just-better-than-average big men. All are nice rebounders with distinct
offensive games – Big Z has a nice hook shot game, Gooden a baseline
jumper, Varejao with put-backs and tap-outs, and Marshall with corner
threes. Their rebounding is just as impacting on defense (2nd best
defensive rebounding rate), as they are stifling as shown by their low
opponent field goal shooting mark (7th best). In all, they were the
fourth best defensive club in terms of efficiency.
The same
old plan with the same old roster might not be good enough this time
around because the young teams in the East are growing fast, and other
teams have imported some major weapons. Additionally, the Cavs still
have some major deficiencies. While I don’t see this team winning the
regular season title in the lesser conference, I think they still have
a good shot at returning to the Finals. In fact, I am once again
picking them to represent the East.
2. BOSTON CELTICS – America,
Fuck Yeah. (America, FUCK YEAH! / Coming again, to save the mother
fucking day yeah, / America, FUCK YEAH! / Freedom is the only way yeah,
/ Terrorist your game is through cause now you have to answer too, /
America, FUCK YEAH!)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ds7FYOEX7Os&mode=related&search=]
Garnett,
Pierce and Allen. This is just like that movie where Superman, Batman
and Spiderman all join to defeat the evil…oh, that movie never
happened? Fine, we’ll skip the requisite analogy.
The Celtics
literally traded away more than half of their roster and the fifth
overall draft pick to get Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, superstars who
are in their twilight prime but more desperate than ever to finally
make the Finals. The three of them have been dangerously close, each
losing in the conference finals once in their career (Pierce and Allen
lost in Game 7s, I believe). Anyone reading this should know how these
three play -- the question is, how will they play together, and can the
rest of team contribute anything to this team?
Although Pierce
will remain the Celtics’ go-to option, I believe the offense will start
with Garnett. Garnett prefers to play high post, and it is a willing
passer (and obviously, a major scoring threat). Look for Pierce to
post-up more often than he has before – he has the ability, but with
the Celtics last year, he had to initiate most of the offense. Ray
Allen, of course, will be the sharp-shooter than makes opponents pay
for doubling Pierce or Garnett. Allen has never played this role
before, so I’m interested in seeing how he’ll play as being the
de-facto third option.
With the Big Three (don’t these guys need
a better nickname?), offense probably isn’t a concern. The questions
are: durability and defense. They really can’t dictate the latter – all
three are over forty and incurred greater injury problems last year
than ever before in their careers (although for Garnett, the Wolves
held him back so that they could tank). But should any one of the three
go down, it’s slim pickings for the C’s. They signed Eddie House and
James Posey in the offseason, both of whom are adept three-point
shooters. House really doesn’t need anyone to set him up for a shot –
if he gets the ball, you better believe it’s going up. The rest of the
team really can’t shoot besides Scalbrine. Rajon Rondo will probably
start for the Celtics at point. Although he’s a player with a lot of
upside, it remains to be seen whether he can lead a team of this
caliber, much less hit an open 18-footer. Collectively, they have
players that can play good defense besides Allen. The Celtics were an
average 18th in defensive efficiency last year, but you can believe
that will improve just given the spirit that this team will play with
(you think anyone will want to disappoint Kevin Garnett?).
The
Celtics seem to be everyone’s favorite to win the East now, but I’m
skeptical. This team will have to be fortunate in terms of injury – if
anyone of the Big Three go down, this team doesn’t have much to lean
on. For their careers, they seem to be rather durable, so maybe that
won’t be a problem. I think they play a spirited regular season, but I
think their deficiency in rebounding and overall depth will end up
beating them in the playoffs.
1. CHICAGO BULLS – I’m Super.
(“I'm feeling super / No, nothing bugs me / Everything is super when
you're / Don't you think I look cute in this hat”)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoObsB-BiBo]
The
Bulls literally had Pau Gasol, the low-post scorer they desperately
needed, waiting on the table. They were one of the few teams that had
the pieces to land Garnett. They remain the team with the most
desirable assets, and the team that Kobe Bryant would prefer to be
traded to.
But the Bulls are pretty happy where they are, thanks.
And
why not? This team was built from the ground up, and their slew of
young players is really growing into their own. Luol Deng suddenly
became one of the most sought-after young players in trade talks, as
his game has developed immensely over the course of the season (he
averaged over 20 a game at the end of the season). Ben Gordon is
sharper than ever from the perimeter, putting up gaudy numbers even
though he came off the bench. And check out the rest of their key
players – Nocioni, Hinrich, Sefolosha, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah.
Doesn’t this team have nowhere to go but up?
The Bulls were a
monster on defense two years ago, but they put themselves over the top
with their big free-agent signing from a year ago, Ben Wallace. They
ranked first in defensive efficiency this last year thanks to Big Ben’s
ability to challenge shots at the rim. The rest of players are no
slouches either, as they forced the second most turnovers in the NBA,
often turning those opportunities into fast break points. Given their
dependence on the jump-shooting game on the offensive end, those points
off turnovers were major.
The Bulls should feel good about
overall team improvement because their individual young guys should
improve, but the guys currently on the roster can’t fix their greatest
deficiencies. If Gordan remains their two-guard, the Bulls are very
small on the defensive end in the backcourt where teams will look to
punish Gordan inside. If a team has an assignment that drags Ben
Wallace outside of the paint (say, the Pistons who eliminated them a
year ago), the Bulls are in real trouble. Their inability to convert on
offense is obvious – they have a bunch of shooters with no one to make
space for them. The Bulls don’t have a single player on their roster
that they can go to in the middle, so opponents are likely to stay at
home on the Bulls’ shooters. Further, the Bulls guards aren’t
drive-and-dish guys. Hinrich is a nice player, but lacks the speed to
blow by defenders. Gordan is a score-first guy; if he gets in the
paint, he’s looking to score or get fouled, not pass. His assists per
40 minutes is a lowly 3.9; for someone who sees the ball as much as he
does, that’s a pretty low number.
With the Bulls attention to
defense and the likely improvement of their young guys, I anticipate
that the Bulls will have the best regular season mark in the East. But
a team so limited on offense (and with an obvious mismatch on defense)
is likely to be exposed in playoffs…especially in the playoffs when
shooters seem to welt. I see the Cavs or Celtics knocking this team out
in the postseason, leaving the Bulls to wonder if they really should
make a run at one of the premier guys in the league.
But yes, Ben Wallace, you look great in that headband. | | |
| I’m supposed to be studying for an impending Water/Wastewater test, but…
Something has been plaguing my mind. My dear friend Melissa recently bought me Season One of Heroes on DVD. I tried to blaze through the entire set before the Season Two premier, but alas, I could not (I finished last night). I did the same thing when I was introduced to Lost – my roommates and I killed Season One in a week, worked our way slowly through Season Two, and by Season Three, we were ABC’s bitches.
While I was watching Heroes, I knew I would try to decide which TV epic I liked better. Now that I’ve finished, I’ll do as I’ve always done – evaluate the two in an entirely too-long blog. I’ll skip obvious topics like “plot” – you can go to Wikipedia if you’ve missed an episode. Instead, I’ll focus on the stylistic elements of each show, and how the viewer (me, in the case, and the occasional chime-in of my roommates with whom I watched these shows) responds to those elements.
PACE
Well, do you like watching the Phoenix Suns or the San Antonio Spurs? Heroes moves without pause, as its focus is on plot resolution. Mysteries are solved after a short commercial break often times, with the requisite minor cliffhanger to end each episode. Lost, meanwhile, is painstaking with character development, often putting their main plot on hold for entire episodes. People say that you can’t miss an episode of Lost without getting completely lost (warning – I’ll make this pun whenever the opportunity presents itself), but one could have missed Episodes 7-20 of last season and catch right back up. Check the ratings – their followers got increasingly impatient. I mean, I felt pretty cheated when I had to sit through an entire episode about Nikki and her boyfriend, and then they just got killed by a fucking spider. What a waste. When watching a DVD set, it really doesn’t matter, but I can understand why Heroes is a better buy from week to week.
My final assessment: Even I’ll miss a few games of an 82-game season watching the Spurs. But in the playoffs…
CHARACTER ATTACHMENT
Here is where you catch the viewer. Half of the conversations I have with my roommates while watching these shows pretty much go like this:
[Blake/Brian/Corey/Crow/Eric/Josh]: Man, [Hiro/Jack] is such a bad ass.
[Robert]: Dude, fuck that guy!
When watching a show of such great duration and a large cast with countless connections, invariably one becomes attached with a main character (or greatly despises one). For Lost, it’s my boy Super-Sayid. And I always find myself rallying behind or rooting against the other big names of the show. In Lost, things can switch on a dime because not only is island plot developing, we get something new from an individual character every week – each episode features exactly one (or one couple). So the attachment is intense, so much so that we actually yell at the TV when we’re watching.
I never got that from Heroes. While watching, I couldn’t decide who I liked, but I knew I wasn’t a fan of almost all of the main characters. By the end, I think I liked Parkman the most, and mostly because of his cool power. I know the American viewing audience is ADD, but Heroes really needs to hone in one their big characters. There can be a balance between plot and character development.
My final assessment: Lost wins in a landslide.
THE LADIES
So if half of the conversations are about who is a bad ass and who isn’t, what’s the other half?
Look, the TV execs are shameless in their choice of female cast members and often in their portrayal; we’re even more shameless in our discussion of Claire versus Claire. Now, I won’t put those arguments in print, because I think I may even blush at it. But we can’t ignore the topic.
[Topic]: [Lost] vs. [Heroes]
The Smoking Hot Main Character: Kate vs. Nikki/Jessica – Even though hooking up with the schizo blonde might qualify as a threesome, Kate is nearly the consensus pick.
Battle of the Claires: Claire vs. Claire – Both are blonde hotties with cute-as-a-button faces (very G rated phrase which I had to convert), but we’re rolling with the Heroes version. The cheerleader uniform adds to the margin of victory.
The Hotter-Than-the-Main-Characters Bit Character: Nikki vs. Candice – Adding Nikki to the Lost cast was strictly for her looks…apparently she had always been on the island (like no one would notice her). Shame on you, ABC. Candice is the hot shape-shifter; honestly, it’s a crime for her to look like anyone else. I’m going with Candice, because even if Nikki were hotter, Candice could take on her looks.
The Super-Cute, Kinda-Hot One: Sun vs. Eden – Ooh, always a close topic. This argument is never settled, and usually comes down to personal preference. For me, it’s Sun in a nail-biter.
“The Minority Gets Shot? Who Guessed That Would Happen?” Chick – Ana Lucia vs. Simone – We’re tied 2-2 at this point, but Ana Lucia wins easy here. Maybe it’s just because of the Mexican bias, I don’t know.
My final assessment: Even though Lost technically won the series, I’m still not sure.
(By the way, if you don’t think this topic should mean this much when grading a show, check the word count. This topic holds its own.)
BULLSHIT PLAUSIBILITY
Another means of heated debate. I know these shows have outlandish plots, but sometimes you just have to call “bullshit.” When everyone in the room yells out, “There’s no way that can happen,” that can’t be good for your show.
The trick is setting up the unbelievable with something legit. Heroes does that well, as the story begins with a professor of genetics, and his son’s pursuit of finishing his work. A dude can fly? Leave it up to good ol’ science to make it believable.
Lost, on the other hand, is pretty bad it. Fucking polar bears and monsters come out of nowhere. And what’s the reason? There is none – it’s Locke’s “faith” in the island’s super-ability. Boo! I want science!
Additionally, the bullshit isn’t even cool. Superpowers are awesome. A monster which is a nothing more than a glorified fog isn’t.
My final assessment: I like making the joke, “It’s a recessive gene!” So Heroes obviously wins.
SEASON FINALES
Okay, here is where Lost really separates itself. Each season finale has been completely plot-altering while fulfilling every story preceded by it. I liken the show to a grand orchestral piece that has a bunch of different movements developing tension and intertwining with each other, and then it all comes together in the final movement that ends abruptly with no cadence. It’s immensely satisfying, and enhances all that came before it. Take Season Three’s finally. Their style since the beginning was to use flashbacks to build and answer plot and character ambitions. At then at the end…HOLY SHIT, IT’S A FLASH FORWARD! Then, BOOM, cut to black, see you in a few months.
Heroes moved quite briskly as I’ve mentioned, but actually started to gain momentum at the end. It was like a marathon runner who kept good speed for the bulk of a race, but started at a sprinter’s pace in the last quarter-mile. The flash-forward episode was phenomenal, and all of the character’s stories started to come together. I was getting excited. But then the season ends in a rather lame showdown and Hiro going back to the past to start Chapter Two. I was really let down. Not The Departed-really-unraveled-there level of disappointment, but still kind of let down. I thought I would jump to my computer to catch up on the last two episodes…instead, I put it off.
I won’t let that sour me on Heroes completely…it was one misstep, I thought. It’s still a really awesome show to watch, but Season Two’s finale will be make or break for me.
My final assessment: That’s why you follow the Spurs (Lost) for an entire season – it pays off.
PARTING THOUGHTS
After Season One of Lost, I was really eager to catch up, and now I’m completely roped, for better or for worse. It’s going to be a long season, I know. Heroes was a really fun ride too, and it very nearly topped all my expectations. On the whole, I was impressed enough to stay along for the ride…I will be caught up by Episode Three.
At the moment though, I am just so much more attached to Lost, so much so that I release “power rankings” before and after every season. Heroes may never get to that level for me, but just the fact that I watch it (I’ve never followed a TV thriller – or any other running show – until Lost) is a testament to its compelling nature.
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| I started playing online poker. Worse, I'm winning right now. Here we go...
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